Tough Times Ahead - Page 5

dmat2391 · 19-11-2013, 06:20 PM

Well as a bloke that moved from applied economics as a bachelor degree to swap it for being a tradie can I say ,with due humility, please have a look at http://www.treasury.gov.au/Publicati...nuation-System. That number of 1.5 trillion as of now, is the real reason we're not in the same state as the U.S. that figure can only rise (over time) because of compound interest.
A little known fact is in cases of severe financial stress a person can ask for emergence access to their super to support their home . This is just one example of why RE didn't tank in the GFC.
Another is how transparent our financial structures are the floating dollar being one the greatest single reforms in our lifetime. Have a look at where and how the "little" Aussie is ranked http://www.investopedia.com/articles...es-to-know.asp.
there are plety more but it's cutting into my beer time (1 reason I left economics)

Yes the day to day life we lead is hard, perhaps even sux sometimes.... but could we all take a deep breath and accept, although there will be challenges that could do some of us in financially, for the majority, can we http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo4OnQpwjkc&noredirect=1... I'll also point out he did himself in because he was dumb.

wrongwaynorris · 19-11-2013, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robdogg

I'm sure some Americans also said house prices will never fall and then businesses in theirs and surrounding suburbs disappeared and people just walked away from their houses because they couldn't sell them for less money most of us have in their wallets.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This was driven by the Investment banks creating derivatives such as CDO's and then betting against those same CDO's with CDS's with the aid of greedy insurance companies such as IAG and the morally bankrupt criminal rating agencies who knowingly gave junk CDO's AAA ratings . There are a LOT of people from the American Investment banking industry , Ratings Agencies and Insurance companies who should quite simply have been put up against a wall and shot for plunging the world into the deliberately engineeered GFC . There were hundreds of of thousands of loans ( Sub Prime ) given to people who they knew could not even afford the very first payment . There are ghost towns in the US with rapidly detiorating 6 year old homes and massive tent cities all across the continent , ALL direct results of the criminal behaviours and greed of the Investment banks , Insurance companies and Ratings Agencies . Our banks leverage ratios are astonomically frightening thanks to dergulation . DON'T think for one nano second it can't happen here .

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wrongwaynorris

This was driven by the Investment banks creating derivatives such as CDO's and then betting against those same CDO's with CDS's with the aid of greedy insurance companies such as IAG and the morally bankrupt criminal rating agencies who knowingly gave junk CDO's AAA ratings . There are a LOT of people from the American Investment banking industry , Ratings Agencies and Insurance companies who should quite simply have been put up against a wall and shot for plunging the world into the deliberately engineeered GFC . There were hundreds of of thousands of loans ( Sub Prime ) given to people who they knew could not even afford the very first payment . There are ghost towns in the US with rapidly detiorating 6 year old homes and massive tent cities all across the continent , ALL dierect results of the criminal behavious and greed of the Investment banks , Insurance companies and Ratings Agencies . Our banks leverage ratios are astonomically frightening thanks to dergulation . DON'T think for one nano second it can't happen here .

Yes.......I have been watching and studying the aussie house price bubble for eight yrs and it still wont stop..... A mate just told me today he wants to buy because hes sick of paying rent.... I said oh .o.k hows that gunna happen on one wage with two kids and a missus that wont work and it takes 25yrs.....He'll be still paying it off when 65 yrs old!

Just like the U.S there were also 'NINJA' loans approved by some aussie banks in 08/09 because they were so desperate for the business.....
Now they're just lowering the interest rates everymonth trying to suck first home buyers in and keep the economy going.....Well check this banks the FHB's have had enough!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-1...rd-low/5083764

U.S has had 0.00 interest rates for five years and their economy is still very poor...... Australia will closely follow this situation over the next 5-10yrs also!

Gadgetman · 19-11-2013, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prydey

whist that may be true, that everything is all relative to us, it isn't relative to the rest of the world, and thats the problem. because the wages and rates and services etc are all inflating all the time, it is now very hard to compete with the rest of the world in any sort of manufacturing field.

agree, its tough to compete for jobs here. However, Australia as a country are excelling in expertise. We have arguably the best surgeons, scientist, engineers etc in the world. Take Ford Australia as an example, Yup they will axe blue collar workers on the production line which is devastating. However in recent times, they have sought out engineers to help design and engineer cars for not just Australia but asia pacific and to some extent global scale as well. As a whole, there are way too many people happy to tell the sad stories but nowhere near enough talk about the good ones. I remember watching a 60 mins report at the time of the GFC and some Guru said that within 2 years of the GFC, the Australian economy would spiral out of control. Housing would drop to unbelievable lows. Yup...... Still waiting..... And guess what there are a few of those gurus that have posted on this thread as well.

Gadgetman · 19-11-2013, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

Yes.......I have been watching and studying the aussie house price bubble for eight yrs and it still wont stop..... A mate just told me today he wants to buy because hes sick of paying rent.... I said oh .o.k hows that gunna happen on one wage with two kids and a missus that wont work and it takes 25yrs.....He'll be still paying it off when 65 yrs old!

Just like the U.S there were also 'NINJA' loans approved by some aussie banks in 08/09 because they were so desperate for the business.....
Now they're just lowering the interest rates everymonth trying to suck first home buyers in and keep the economy going.....Well check this banks the FHB's have had enough!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-1...rd-low/5083764

U.S hads has 0.00 interest rates for five years and their economy is still very poor...... Australia will closely follow this situation over the next 5-10yrs also!

The US Economy is actually recovering. Long way to go yet, but is on the up. Our banks didn't put their hands up to lower interests rates. The RBA have reduced th cash rate and the banks have actually done a poor job in recent years of passing on full rate cuts. The fact that most financiers are writing finance and nearly 200% the cash rate tells you that it aint that bad!

wrongwaynorris · 19-11-2013, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

agree, its tough to compete for jobs here. However, Australia as a country are excelling in expertise. We have arguably the best surgeons, scientist, engineers etc in the world. Take Ford Australia as an example, Yup they will axe blue collar workers on the production line which is devastating. However in recent times, they have sought out engineers to help design and engineer cars for not just Australia but asia pacific and to some extent global scale as well. As a whole, there are way too many people happy to tell the sad stories but nowhere near enough talk about the good ones. I remember watching a 60 mins report at the time of the GFC and some Guru said that within 2 years of the GFC, the Australian economy would spiral out of control. Housing would drop to unbelievable lows. Yup...... Still waiting..... And guess what there are a few of those gurus that have posted on this thread as well.

We were riding high on a resources investment boom which artificially propped up the economy and which has substantialy cooled in the last two years . Housing will drop to what its worth instead of the artificially propped up values it sits at now . No guru here , I just live in the REAL world .

Gadgetman · 19-11-2013, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wrongwaynorris

We were riding high on a resources investment boom which artificially propped up the economy and which has substantialy cooled in the last two years . Housing will drop to what its worth instead of the artificially propped up values it sits at now . No guru here , I just live in the REAL world .

So do I. Live in the real world that is. I live in Melbourne. There aint much mining going around here. Property prices in Metro Melbourne has climbed steadily in the last 2 years. It would be great if this thread was a sticky that could stick around for 5 years or so and we remember to reflect on some of the "Gurus Predictions that live in the real world"

Spammy · 19-11-2013, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

Yes.......I have been watching and studying the aussie house price bubble for eight yrs and it still wont stop..... A mate just told me today he wants to buy because hes sick of paying rent.... I said oh .o.k hows that gunna happen on one wage with two kids and a missus that wont work and it takes 25yrs.....He'll be still paying it off when 65 yrs old!

!

How long / how much do house prices have to increase before you (and others who mistakenly beliven the bubble rubbish give up and move onto fllogging some other dead horse??

Seriously, how much more wrong does somebody have to be before they admit defeat?

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

So do I. Live in the real world that is. I live in Melbourne. There aint much mining going around here. Property prices in Metro Melbourne has climbed steadily in the last 2 years. It would be great if this thread was a sticky that could stick around for 5 years or so and we remember to reflect on some of the "Gurus Predictions that live in the real world"

Have look at the aussie house price charts and tell me they're normal....

Take note of the last 120 years..... then the last 10!

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/t.../2013051361302

wrongwaynorris · 19-11-2013, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

So do I. Live in the real world that is. I live in Melbourne. There aint much mining going around here. Property prices in Metro Melbourne has climbed steadily in the last 2 years. It would be great if this thread was a sticky that could stick around for 5 years or so and we remember to reflect on some of the "Gurus Predictions that live in the real world"

Like Robert Gnaizda , Dominic Strauss Kahn and Christine Legard in 2006 / 2007 and 2008 .

Trump · 19-11-2013, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmat2391

Well as a bloke that moved from applied economics as a bachelor degree to swap it for being a tradie can I say ,with due humility, please have a look at http://www.treasury.gov.au/Publicati...nuation-System. That number of 1.5 trillion as of now, is the real reason we're not in the same state as the U.S. that figure can only rise (over time) because of compound interest.
A little known fact is in cases of severe financial stress a person can ask for emergence access to their super to support their home . This is just one example of why RE didn't tank in the GFC.
Another is how transparent our financial structures are the floating dollar being one the greatest single reforms in our lifetime. Have a look at where and how the "little" Aussie is ranked http://www.investopedia.com/articles...es-to-know.asp.
there are plety more but it's cutting into my beer time (1 reason I left economics)

Yes the day to day life we lead is hard, perhaps even sux sometimes.... but could we all take a deep breath and accept, although there will be challenges that could do some of us in financially, for the majority, can we http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo4OnQpwjkc&noredirect=1... I'll also point out he did himself in because he was dumb.

That $1.5 trillion has the politicians salivating like wolves. They are seething at the rush to go self managed (and invest it in whichever vehicle that takes control of the money away from the big super funds). I don't put it past them to legalise the "redistribution" of the super monies.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

The US Economy is actually recovering. Long way to go yet, but is on the up. Our banks didn't put their hands up to lower interests rates. The RBA have reduced th cash rate and the banks have actually done a poor job in recent years of passing on full rate cuts. The fact that most financiers are writing finance and nearly 200% the cash rate tells you that it aint that bad!

By what valid metric (and I don't class GDP as it exists as a valid metric as it counts debt as a product) would anyone consider the US to be recovering? Unemployment is beyond a joke and there are at least 40 million people on food stamps over there. The US govco is in debt to the Fed (and of course China and the other "sovereign" bondholders) so much, they could never repay it. Manufacturing is in a worse state than it is here (with the exception of a few upstarts like Tesla Motors). Recovery... I don't think so Tim.

Spammy · 19-11-2013, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

. A mate just told me today he wants to buy because hes sick of paying rent.... I said oh .o.k hows that gunna happen on one wage with two kids and a missus that wont work and it takes 25yrs.....He'll be still paying it off when 65 yrs old!

!

And if he doesn't buy a house of his own (and pay it off till he is 65) how long will he be paying rent for?

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spammy

And if he doesn't buy a house of his own (and pay it off till he is 65) how long will he be paying rent for?

Forever, he missed the boat years ago. Too bloody late now!

Trump · 19-11-2013, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spammy

How long / how much do house prices have to increase before you (and others who mistakenly beliven the bubble rubbish give up and move onto fllogging some other dead horse??

Seriously, how much more wrong does somebody have to be before they admit defeat?

I'd love to see some of the evidence that may exist to show that the fundamentals to support (and enhance) housing prices are real and solid... oh wait, it doesn't exist!

Spammy · 19-11-2013, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loud_Noises

I'd love to see some of the evidence that may exist to show that the fundamentals to support (and enhance) housing prices are real and solid... oh wait, it doesn't exist!

Show me real proof that house prices are going to fall.

Trump · 19-11-2013, 08:47 PM

http://www.news.com.au/national/brea...-1226648909642

Now multiply x 11ty

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

The US Economy is actually recovering. Long way to go yet, but is on the up. Our banks didn't put their hands up to lower interests rates. The RBA have reduced th cash rate and the banks have actually done a poor job in recent years of passing on full rate cuts. The fact that most financiers are writing finance and nearly 200% the cash rate tells you that it aint that bad!

Oh o.k...Well why the hell are they talking about introducing 'negative interest rates' via The Federal reserve bank or in other words a very desperate move to get people lending again???

rog xc · 19-11-2013, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spammy

And if he doesn't buy a house of his own (and pay it off till he is 65) how long will he be paying rent for?

I'm 42, married, one wage, 3 kids under 8.. Just bought our first house. Still possible to do ;)

Spammy · 19-11-2013, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rog xc

I'm 42, married, one wage, 3 kids under 8.. Just bought our first house. Still possible to do ;)

100% agree here & and good on you

--- trying to highlight the oddly flawed argument that he would be paying off a mortgage for 25 years....whereas he would be paying (ever increasing) rent until the day he dies.

prydey · 19-11-2013, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

.... A mate just told me today he wants to buy because hes sick of paying rent.... I said oh .o.k hows that gunna happen on one wage with two kids and a missus that wont work and it takes 25yrs.....He'll be still paying it off when 65 yrs old!

i have a wife, 2 kids and only 1 income and am paying off a house.

it isn't that difficult to do if you accept what you can and can't afford. i would love to have a big flash house, fancy car, pool, etc etc, but you have to be realistic and live within your means.

also, when i first started in my industry 20years ago, qualified printers were making 60-70k per year incl, overtime etc. today, that is still pretty much the level of pay. it has gone nowhere. my pay has gone up maybe $40/week in over 10 years.

sometimes you just have to get on with life.

rog xc · 19-11-2013, 09:14 PM

Spot on. Would have bought earlier, but lived in Melbourne until 3 years ago.. Never could have bought down there in the same conditions, it took a move to Ballarat to make it possible.

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rog xc

Spot on. Would have bought earlier, but lived in Melbourne until 3 years ago.. Never could have bought down there in the same conditions, it took a move to Ballarat to make it possible.

Ye and how many jobs are available in Ballarat? Its not that simple for many stuck in the city doing city jobs!

rog xc · 19-11-2013, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

Ye and how many jobs are available in Ballarat? Its not that simple for many stuck in the city doing city jobs!

Don't know, you'd have to do a search. Changes are possible, the writing on the wall just has to be seen & understood. I was in dead end factory work from 17 to 24, then did a mature age apprenticeship in sheetmetal.

superyob · 19-11-2013, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

Yes.......I have been watching and studying the aussie house price bubble for eight yrs and it still wont stop..... A mate just told me today he wants to buy because hes sick of paying rent.... I said oh .o.k hows that gunna happen on one wage with two kids and a missus that wont work and it takes 25yrs.....He'll be still paying it off when 65 yrs old!

Just like the U.S there were also 'NINJA' loans approved by some aussie banks in 08/09 because they were so desperate for the business.....
Now they're just lowering the interest rates everymonth trying to suck first home buyers in and keep the economy going.....Well check this banks the FHB's have had enough!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-1...rd-low/5083764

U.S has had 0.00 interest rates for five years and their economy is still very poor...... Australia will closely follow this situation over the next 5-10yrs also!

Why does the 'missus' have to work? She already has a job looking after 2 kids...

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loud_Noises

http://www.news.com.au/national/brea...-1226648909642

Now multiply x 11ty

Things might be moving along only just o.k for now but just wait 3 more years until this **** hits the fan...... Broadmeadows is going to be like a minature Detroit!

Imagine being a Ford/Holden employee 5 years ago and taking on one of these massive mortgages people take on these days....WTF are they going to do now????

Same for the Holden workers in Adelaide?

Windsor220 · 19-11-2013, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prydey

i have a wife, 2 kids and only 1 income and am paying off a house.

it isn't that difficult to do if you accept what you can and can't afford. i would love to have a big flash house, fancy car, pool, etc etc, but you have to be realistic and live within your means.

also, when i first started in my industry 20years ago, qualified printers were making 60-70k per year incl, overtime etc. today, that is still pretty much the level of pay. it has gone nowhere. my pay has gone up maybe $40/week in over 10 years.

sometimes you just have to get on with life.

Depends on the industry. Some qualified mechanics 10 years ago were only earning the equivalent to what a 3rd year apprentice does today. Wages have almost doubled in that time.

GASWAGON · 19-11-2013, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Windsor220

Depends on the industry. Some qualified mechanics 10 years ago were only earning the equivalent to what a 3rd year apprentice does today. Wages have almost doubled in that time.

Oh o.k....And what about the poor young mechanic i just did two weeks with at HSV in Melbourne.....He did four year apprenticeship at Kmart Auto and was on 18 per hr qualified.....What a fukin joke....Mechanics trade is screwed!

**buggerlugs** · 19-11-2013, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

Oh o.k....And what about the poor young mechanic i just did two weeks with at HSV in Melbourne.....He did four year apprenticeship at Kmart Auto and was on 18 per hr qualified.....What a fukin joke....Mechanics trade is screwed!

Can't you have a discussion without dropping the F Bomb ? Was it really needed ?

Robdogg · 19-11-2013, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_6

Oh o.k....And what about the poor young mechanic i just did two weeks with at HSV in Melbourne.....He did four year apprenticeship at Kmart Auto and was on 18 per hr qualified.....What a fukin joke....Mechanics trade is screwed!

That makes me feel even better knowing that after years of working for various ford dealers as a mechanic and then leaving the trade 12 years ago that even HSV mechanics also wasted their time becoming a mechanic. So the average mechanics wage has jumped from $16hr to $18hr in that time.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

stevz · 19-11-2013, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spammy

How long / how much do house prices have to increase before you (and others who mistakenly beliven the bubble rubbish give up and move onto fllogging some other dead horse??

Seriously, how much more wrong does somebody have to be before they admit defeat?

The only people I see defending/talking up the property market are those with a vested interest - Banks.... Real estate agents.... Developers..... Investors..... That one-eyebrowed propaganda machine from the REIV.

Everyone else can see that it is clearly unsustainable and only a matter of time. There is no denying that property has had a good run with luck and circumstances on its side, but with the global economy in dire straits, the luck is running out fast and there will be nothing left to prop up the ponzi scheme.