Covid 19 - - Page 296

**FairmontGS** · 06-01-2021, 11:26 AM

Victorian coronavirus case could have been caught at MCG cricket Test, Chadstone Shopping Centre Boxing Day sales

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...sales/13035256

T3rminator · 06-01-2021, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EgoFG

OK, here is a working theory
(please note I am not an expert, so this is really just farting in the wind)

What if the nature and severity of your symptoms were ALSO dependent on the nature of initial infection ?

I think you are farting in the right direction. Correlation between initial viral load and severity of symptoms has been talked about previously. Could explain why the cases in NSW and VIC are currently quite mild i.e. people are still largely social distancing, working from home, and premises are keeping covid safe.

That could change when you add a few superspreader events in a short time frame e.g. Christmas Eve, NYE and Test matches. We'll know by end of Jan if we have dodged a bullet.

**russellw** · 06-01-2021, 12:27 PM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT January 5th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

19 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.187%. NSW recorded 8 cases, NT 5, Victoria 4, Queensland 2 and WA recorded 1 case.

5 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.141% and active cases 61.

The UK had a new record 61,216 cases yesterday and 874 deaths.

Just over 192.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,985 deaths sees CMR fall to 1.696% and active cases at 38.7% with the raw numbers falling and now at 8.2M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Asia passes 21M cases;
India passes 150k deaths;
The USA completes 261M, India 176M, Russia 92M, UK 57M, UAE 21M, Canada 14M, Belgium 7M, Argentina & Japan 5M tests.

Only -
Nigeria (1,354);
UAE (1,967);
Lebanon (3,620);
Japan (4,113);
Colombia (16,835); and
the United Kingdom (61,216)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

mostly_broncos · 06-01-2021, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilo

Please provide evidence of the highlighted text cause it contradicts what I am hearing from two family members, both of who are doctors.

this is the biggest bunch of crap right? It could be true of the flu as well but no one ever checked

True of chicken pox ? No one ever checked the hearts or brain scans of the 8 billion people on the planet before they got sick so what do any of these speculations even mean

**FairmontGS** · 06-01-2021, 12:48 PM

Coronavirus Australia live news: Wentworthville and Belmore added to SCG ban, patrons told to wear a mask

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...a-nsw/13034518

Just cancel the crowd and let everyone watch it from home

mostly_broncos · 06-01-2021, 12:57 PM

Another thing about all these last effects . 99.5% of current cases are described as mild , these people are recovering at home on their own or with help from friends and family and no before and after data is being collected about them.

If you have a "mild" you get sent home and no one ever speaks to you again. So , when there is some study of 34 people who had heart damage , remember they are probably people who are severely ill and in the hospital or already had heart scans for some reason , probably a pre existing condition. No one who doesn't have a heart problem already gets these scans , no public or for profit health care system budgets for those tests for people that are healthy.

It also should be noted , people who are healthy stay that way but avoiding hospitals as a rule unless they get laid low by something.

Tickford. · 06-01-2021, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

The data says right now that VIC has 4x the amount of cases....

See, this is why NSW needs to change the way they report the daily numbers.

FYI, right now, VIC has 41 cases of the NSW virus, and NSW has 196 cases of the NSW virus.

Here are some examples of the data released on most social media platforms by some of the states:

South Australia:

Queensland:

VIC:

NSW:

No active case numbers on NSW's reports. When dealing with an outbreak, the current active cases is critical rather than historical. Current active cases are the ones who can spread it to others. Not the ones that have recovered.

**Beastie** · 06-01-2021, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Coronavirus Australia live news: Wentworthville and Belmore added to SCG ban, patrons told to wear a mask

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...a-nsw/13034518

Just cancel the crowd and let everyone watch it from home

My son had pre purchased a ticket for Jane McGrath day last year.

He contacted the ticketing agency yesterday about options to cancel and they refunded his ticket cost without any questions...

**FairmontGS** · 06-01-2021, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

My son had pre purchased a ticket for Jane McGrath day last year.

He contacted the ticketing agency yesterday about options to cancel and they refunded his ticket cost without any questions...

Sounds like you have a clever son Beastie. Given the MCG Zombie Outbreak why would anyone even consider going to the SCG?

**Beastie** · 06-01-2021, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tickford.

See, this is why NSW needs to change the way they report the daily numbers.

FYI, right now, VIC has 41 cases of the NSW virus, and NSW has 196 cases of the NSW virus.

Here are some examples of the data released on most social media platforms by some of the states:

South Australia:
image

Queensland:
image

VIC:
image

NSW:
image

No active case numbers on NSW's reports. When dealing with an outbreak, the current active cases is critical rather than historical. Current active cases are the ones who can spread it to others. Not the ones that have recovered.

Have you seen this site?

https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...d-case-numbers

Looks quite informative and up to date to me, including Active Cases in NSW?

Tickford. · 06-01-2021, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

Have you seen this site?

https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...d-case-numbers

Looks quite informative and up to date to me, including Active Cases in NSW?

Again, how many people would bother to go chasing the information? People would rather the information appear on their FB, Twitter, etc etc feeds, without having to look for it. Most people are too lazy.

How many times a day have you/do you visit the NSW governments location update webpage to keep on top the infection locations, to check if you or someone you know might have visited said location at the date and time? Honestly?

Or would you rather that info appear on FF.com.au's Covid thread in a post detailing all the locations?

AlanD · 06-01-2021, 02:21 PM

Gee, perhaps we ought to take a breath (of FRESH air) and settle down.

Perhaps a chuckle will help, so courtesy of my Canadian cousin, where apparently they still can laugh about things:

I hope they give us two weeks notice before sending us back out into the real world. I think we'll all need the time to become ourselves again. And by "ourselves" I mean lose 10 pounds, cut our hair and get used to not drinking at 9:00 a.m.

New monthly budget: Gas $0 Entertainment $0 Clothes $0 Groceries $2,799.
Breaking News: Wearing a mask inside your home is now highly recommended. Not so much to stop COVID-19, but to stop eating.

Low maintenance chicks are having their moment right now. They don't have nails to fill and paint, roots to dye, eyelashes to re-mink, and are thrilled not to have to get dressed every day. They have been training for this moment their entire life!

When this quarantine is over, let's not tell some people.

I stepped on my scale this morning. It said: "Please practice social distancing. Only one person at a time on scale."

Not to brag, but I haven't been late to anything in over 6 weeks.

It may take a village to raise a child but I swear its going to take a vineyard to home school one.

I wanted zombies and anarchy. Instead we got working from home and toilet paper shortages.
Worst. Apocalypse. Ever.

You know those car commercials where there's only one vehicle on the road - doesn't seem so unrealistic these days ...

They can open things up next month, I'm staying in until July to see what happens to you all first.

Day 37: The garbage man placed an AA flyer on my recycling bin.

The spread of Covid-19 is based on two things:
1. How dense the population is.
2. How dense the population is.

Appropriate analogy: "The curve is flattening so we can start lifting restrictions now" = "The parachute has slowed our rate of descent, so we can take it off now".

People keep asking: "Is coronavirus REALLY all that serious?" Listen y'all, the churches and casinos are closed. When heaven and hell agree on the same thing it's probably pretty serious.

Never in a million years could I have imagined I would go up to a bank teller wearing a mask and ask for money.

Home school Day 1: I'm trying to figure out how I can get this kid transferred out of my class.

Putting a drink in each room of my house today and calling it a pub crawl.

Okay, the schools are closed. So do we drop the kids off at the teacher's house or what?

For the second part of this quarantine do we have to stay with the same family or will they relocate us? Asking for myself ...

Coronavirus has turned us all into dogs. We wander around the house looking for food. We get told "No" if we get too close to strangers and we get really excited about going for walks and car rides.

The dumbest thing I've ever bought was a 2020 planner ...

I was in a long line at 7:45 am today at the grocery store that opened at 8:00 for seniors only. A young man came from the parking lot and tried to cut in at the front of the line, but an old lady beat him back into the parking lot with her cane.
He returned and tried to cut in again but an old man punched him in the gut, then kicked him to the ground and rolled him away.
As he approached the line for the 3rd time he said, "If you don't let me unlock the door, you'll never get in there."

Enjoy your day. You don't have anything else to do

Cheers

Metdevil · 06-01-2021, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilo

Please provide evidence of the highlighted text cause it contradicts what I am hearing from two family members, both of who are doctors.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

this is the biggest bunch of crap right? It could be true of the flu as well but no one ever checked

True of chicken pox ? No one ever checked the hearts or brain scans of the 8 billion people on the planet before they got sick so what do any of these speculations even mean

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2768916

Not the largest sample size, but I imagine cardiac MRI scans aren't cheap. Note the parts which say 'independent of severity', some subjects were even asymptomatic.

**Beastie** · 06-01-2021, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Again, how many people would bother to go chasing the information? People would rather the information appear on their FB, Twitter, etc etc feeds, without having to look for it. Most people are too lazy.

How many times a day have you/do you visit the NSW governments location update webpage to keep on top the infection locations, to check if you or someone you know might have visited said location at the date and time? Honestly?

Or would you rather that info appear on FF.com.au's Covid thread in a post detailing all the locations?

If I wanted the info, I would go looking for it.

I would definitely not rely on FB etc and the last place I would search for information is in here...

Itsme · 06-01-2021, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

If I wanted the info, I would go looking for it.

I would definitely not rely on FB etc and the last place I would search for information is in here...

You do know you will upset the odd few here with this comment........

But I do wholeheartdily agree with you.

**Beastie** · 06-01-2021, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officemanager

You do know you will upset the odd few here with this comment........

But I do wholeheartdily agree with you.

You should have seen what I was going to write...

**GasoLane** · 06-01-2021, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

You should have seen what I was going to write...

Bonus points for restraint

Tickford. · 06-01-2021, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

I would definitely not rely on FB etc and the last place I would search for information is in here...

YOU may not, but a lot of people do. The comment I made wasn't aimed at you specifically, but do go ahead and make it all about yourself.

So you don't read these forums and be somewhat informed of what's happening?? These forums not classified as social media??
After I posted a list of the NSW locations, you said..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

That's very informative information - Thank you.

Good to see you're being truthful and honest. :Thumbsup

As for people making the effort the check the official government websites for information, you yourself admitted that you don't check the updates..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie

To be brutally honest, I haven't been keeping up with the hourly updates.

Again, good to see you're being truthful and honest.

**FairmontGS** · 06-01-2021, 05:44 PM

So that's Beastie, Gaso, Russ mods that you've tussled with. You live on the edge baby.

You're AFF's Kim jong un!

And you're killing it!

Props dude... I love seeing people go down in a blaze of glory

**Beastie** · 06-01-2021, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tickford.

YOU may not, but a lot of people do. The comment I made wasn't aimed at you specifically, but do go ahead and make it all about yourself.

So you don't read these forums and be somewhat informed of what's happening?? These forums not classified as social media??
After I posted a list of the NSW locations, you said..

Good to see you're being truthful and honest. :Thumbsup

As for people making the effort the check the official government websites for information, you yourself admitted that you don't check the updates..

Again, good to see you're being truthful and honest.

Not sure what you mean by that comment - I thought you asked me a question...

Yellow_Festiva · 06-01-2021, 10:11 PM

On a lighter note.

For a good laugh watch 'Death to 2020' on Netflix.

Mostly about covid 19 but has a few other hilarious interpretations of the events of 2020.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

EgoFG · 07-01-2021, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metdevil

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2768916

Not the largest sample size, but I imagine cardiac MRI scans aren't cheap. Note the parts which say 'independent of severity', some subjects were even asymptomatic.

I just quickly compare this to US Cases vss Hospitalisations (Sorry, US data is what I keep in my spreadsheet)

In the US between 3% and 5% of cases get hospitalised.

That study includes 33% hospitalised.
There sample is not only too small, it is not representative of real world case severity.

I am not disagreeing with the conclusion - I really have no idea of the likelihood of long term impacts.

But the data in this study should be only used to help see the need for a real study.

mostly_broncos · 07-01-2021, 04:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I just quickly compare this to US Cases vss Hospitalisations (Sorry, US data is what I keep in my spreadsheet)

In the US between 3% and 5% of cases get hospitalised.

That study includes 33% hospitalised.
There sample is not only too small, it is not representative of real world case severity.

I am not disagreeing with the conclusion - I really have no idea of the likelihood of long term impacts.

But the data in this study should be only used to help see the need for a real study.

There are such huge holes in the data its ridiculous for media to even report on these things.

As I pointed out early , the vast majority of cases there is no further data about any aspect of the way it progresses.

Lets say a 30 year old guy feels sick and gets tested and is positive. He is told to isolate and no one ever speaks to him again unless he is dying. No records of how it progressed , no symptom checklists or even a personal journal , no record of how he treats himself which pills he tries what he eats who he had contact with before and after he was tested how long he felt sick . Multiply that by 200,000 + per day here in the states , there is no way anyone could follow up on any but the most serious cases and no weay to go back and connect any dots later.

Which is why when some fool on TV starts quoting studies during prime time the proper response is to shut the TV off.

No one is ever going to know about anything that happened to the non hospitalized patients and with the way our hospitals are slammed there is little chance anyone has the free time to delve into it.

All the data is just a big jumble of garbage

mostly_broncos · 07-01-2021, 04:55 AM

When I got sick in July , if it hadn't been for the constant roar of media hysteria I would never have gone to the hospital at all.

For some reason I thought there was a point to the trip

If I had known I was going to be sitting in a tent full of other sick people waiting for a test that I would never get any results for and then not treated in any way , I would have just stayed home. How insane is it to fill a tent with a mixture of people who may or may not have the virus? Its great from a herd immunity standpoint of course

Drink fluids and rest and avoid people they told me. They could have sent a text that said that and I could have glanced at it while watching a movie on netflix.

The media's motivation in all this is just money , ratings , page views , eyeballs for advertisers. Never the well being of the population or the common good. The government's response is a disaster because government is useless even in the best of times . Government is made up of blame dodgers and control freaks .

Our economy has been crushed by this and yet , no government worker has missed a single paycheck even if they are not delivering any actual service . No politician who tells you to stay home has missed a paycheck either.

Metdevil · 07-01-2021, 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I just quickly compare this to US Cases vss Hospitalisations (Sorry, US data is what I keep in my spreadsheet)

In the US between 3% and 5% of cases get hospitalised.

That's 3-5% of cases which are inoculated with the virus, not of which contract the disease. Two totally different numbers.

Metdevil · 07-01-2021, 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mostly_broncos

Which is why when some fool on TV starts quoting studies during prime time the proper response is to shut the TV off.

So you deliberately ignore research, you're not concerned by the hundreds of thousands of cases per day, you're not concerned by the fact that hospitals are nearing capacity, or that ambulances are having to deny patients?

Just out of curiosity, what will it take for you to start paying attention? At which point will you think "hang on, something doesn't feel quite right. Maybe everything's not all hunky dory"?
I feel like some people just won't take notice until they have to kick aside body bags to get into Starbucks for their morning coffee. (obviously hyperbole, don't get too caught up on this 'prediction')

And I realise it's fun to blame the media for everything bad in the world, but remember that this all began as a result of a nation trying to suppress the media coverage of the outbreak. If the media did nothing while hospitals were closing their doors, or as people were being quarantined at the border, the conspiracy theorists would have their work cut out for them.
Seems the media are damned if they do, damned if they don't with coronavirus coverage...

Fed · 07-01-2021, 07:55 AM

If 99.5% of the cases are mild why do ~3.0% of the cases die? (3.4% in Oz)

tweeked · 07-01-2021, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fed

If 99.5% of the cases are mild why do ~3.0% of the cases die? (3.4% in Oz)

Because the figures of cases/deaths from first wave to later waves clearly show that most cases were not diagnosed at all in the first wave. Probably by a factor of well over 10. Even now in the UK, the chances that they are even diagnosing half of their 50000 a day in their current mayhem is pretty slim. The only figures on death rates that you can trust will be those out of the 200 plus cases currently maturing in VIC and NSW. It is probably one of the only times globally that most cases have been identified, and not a great statistical sample. There are 2 people in hospital out of the 200+, none in ICU let alone being ventilated.

Metdevil · 07-01-2021, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fed

If 99.5% of the cases are mild why do ~3.0% of the cases die? (3.4% in Oz)

Because people are greatly misinterpreting a 'case' as somebody who has contracted the disease.
Getting covid and getting coronavirus are two different things.

tweeked · 07-01-2021, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Because people are greatly misinterpreting a 'case' as somebody who has contracted the disease.
Getting covid and getting coronavirus are two different things.

That sounds like the statisticians or medical experts have found a great way of muddying the waters and confusing people.

No one in the general population cares about what the death rate is for different "case" definitions. They just want to know what the chances are if they test positive. That is so simple and in the end all that matters.