Petrol Price crisis......

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by b0son

Food retail/service has been growing ahead of total retail growth. It stands to reason it might see a contraction when essentials go up in cost. I'd argue at least in the café market, people tend to overpay (and I'm curious who's profiting because it certainly isn't our farming sector). Wait til there's an interest rate hike.....

interest rates need to rise sooner rather than later. The perfect normaliser.

[EgoFG]

I would love to see a chart showing the price of crude in AUD, and average capital city fuel prices ... over the last 5-10 years ... if there is no correlation, then someone is profiteering

[mick taylor]

Originally Posted by hackney

We will just disagree,to disagree,OK?

Fact is I would not of believed it myself, but I know better now and I do 50.000KM a year so I would know because I do pay attention to such things.
I thought all brands of fuel was the same, like 91 octan would be the same regardless but it's clearly not, the wife's VS V6 would always ping but I would put 91 from BP or Shell and there other mobs and it never pinged then.
That VS of the wife's went real well for a VS V6 and I believe that when they put the rear plate on that picks up the spark timing, it's not always spot on, so you get some that are retarded and some are advanced, it's this or the cam timing that makes them gutless or go well, I have driven a fare few to notice and two mates had gutless VS V6 from new and know one bloke that had the pinging in his and the dealer put a new chip in it and that fixed that problem but he was a old dude that knew nothing much.

So wife's VS would ping and by rights they should never ping as it was stock as a rock.
So why should it ping on one 91 fuel and not on another 91 ?
I had driven it on long trips as well using BP or Shell and not a problem and as soon as Caltex bingo that ping came back, every time when overtaking dropping back to 2ed flat out and it ping initially for a second and then go away every time.

The wife's Aurion will not spin the wheels on 91 Caltex taking of flat out but will go light them up on BP or Shell easy until the traction control kicks in.

The nippers 2015 2.4L manual GSR Lancer with aircon on, is as gutless as when taking off on 91 Caltex that it's a real pain to drive but 91 BP or Shell it's better, the 95 octane Shell is best of the lot, 94 E10 is good and 98 is not as good as the 95 octane because as soon as it hits 3500rpm it kicks in real well and takes off but all the other fuels it 4000rpm that it kicks in.

I jet and tune all my dirt bikes for years, so I have a ear and feel for such things to know the difference you know.

I must admit that my XG Falcon performed best on Caltex back in 1993-4, so I have no prejudice as to any company brands and will use products from different brands, as no one company has the best of everything and you will find some products are just crap, not to mention some that are real crappy.

[LG17]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...2ebc0a6a4522e1

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by LG17

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...2ebc0a6a4522e1

Subscription only.

[LG17]

Oh, I'm not a subscriber.
I'll try to find it again.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

Fact is I would not of believed it myself....

I fully agree with the concept.
A few years back, I had a very regular driving routine (5 days to the office return, no weekends, half of the time 70-80kmph, half stop/start).
During this time I did some ECONOMY testing on my EFII I6.
I was rigorous, I always ran the car to 50km left on the trip meter, I always ignored the first tank after swapping fuel, and always ran the test for at least 3 tanks.

I found 91 -> 95 -> 98 was all worth the extra money, using Caltex. Then I started using different brands. I found Caltex=BP, but Shell 98 was no better than 95 from Caltex or BP

[LG17]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

Subscription only.

This is not it, but it is similar'





New Coles managing director Steven Cain says he is willing to exit the $35 billion retail fuel market at the right price to end a deal that has saddled the retailer with Australia's highest petrol prices and led to a one-third slump in sales volumes over the past two years.
Mr Cain revealed on Monday that Coles, which is soon to demerge from Wesfarmers, is experimenting with a convenience store format that sells on-the-go foods such as sandwiches and snacks and a range of grocery staples, but crucially does not sell fuel.
Asked if Coles, like Woolworths, would consider exiting the low-margin fuel business, Mr Cain said: "Our approach going forward will be like the Wesfarmers one – if someone comes along and offers the right price for the business clearly we'd look at it."
Higher prices, falling sales

However, he also said Coles Express, which accounts for 18 per cent of the retail fuel market, was "something of a powerhouse" and was a business that had further upside.
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Mr Cain's comment followed another sharp fall in Coles' fuel sales volumes, which took the shine off an otherwise strong first-quarter sales result.
Coles' pump prices are routinely several cents higher than those at rivals such as Woolworths and Caltex, BP and 7-Eleven and it is rapidly losing market share due to an uncompetitive fuel supply agreement with the recently listed Viva Energy, which took over the Coles contract in 2014 after buying Shell's retail fuel and refinery businesses.
Coles Express comparable fuel volumes slumped 15.9 per cent in the September quarter after falling 15.8 per cent in the June quarter and 21 per cent in the September quarter 2018.
Higher fuel prices, which have risen about 20 per cent over the past year to 4½-year highs, added to the pressure on volumes.

Despite the fall in fuel volumes, same-store sales in convenience stores rose 3.4 per cent, compared with 4.6 per cent growth in the June quarter and 0.2 per cent in the first quarter 2018 as Coles improved its food-to-go range in an attempt to offset weaker petrol sales.
Wesfarmers managing director Rob Scott said Coles believed weekly fuel volumes were starting to stabilise at around 60 million litres a week (compared with 90 million litres a week two years ago), but analysts questioned this assumption, saying quarterly sales were still falling at a rapid rate.
Coles Express earnings fell 9 per cent in 2018 after a 6 per cent fall in sales to $5.7 billion and Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst David Errington said Coles was facing a similar fall in earnings this year unless the volume decline was arrested.
Viva unwilling to budge


"What are you going to do? This is a volume game and a fixed-cost industry," Mr Errington said.
"You might sell a few more coffees and sandwiches but that won't offset another 15 to 16 per cent drop in volumes – what can you do here to avoid another step down in earnings if petrol prices stay up at these levels?
"It looks like your joint venture partner is not going to come to the party. If volumes don't pick up you're sitting on a pretty hefty drop in EBIT again."
Coles has been in discussions with Viva for two years to improve the terms of the supply deal but Viva, which floated in July, has been unwilling to budge. The current agreement is due to expire in February 2024.

Mr Scott said Coles Express was trialling different pricing initiatives, without giving details, and continued to discuss the issue with Viva.
"Coles Express is not an overly material contributor of earnings to the group and we're focused on improving it," Mr Scott said.
Coles has been selling fuel since mid-2003, when it established an alliance with Shell. Shell sold its refining and fuel retailing business to Viva Energy in 2014.
Coles Express accounts for about 18 per cent of retail fuel sales but under the Viva agreement pays the highest wholesale fuel prices in the market. It also leases its 711 sites from Viva.

Woolworths is still considering selling or floating its $5 billion fuel business, which delivered a 7.1 per cent increase in earnings to $168 million in 2018 as sales rose 3.1 per cent to $4.8 billion.


https://www.afr.com/business/retail/...0181015-h16nec

[b0son]

Wow... 2024??? What sort of shoddy due diligence did they do?

[mick taylor]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I fully agree with the concept.
A few years back, I had a very regular driving routine (5 days to the office return, no weekends, half of the time 70-80kmph, half stop/start).
During this time I did some ECONOMY testing on my EFII I6.
I was rigorous, I always ran the car to 50km left on the trip meter, I always ignored the first tank after swapping fuel, and always ran the test for at least 3 tanks.

I found 91 -> 95 -> 98 was all worth the extra money, using Caltex. Then I started using different brands. I found Caltex=BP, but Shell 98 was no better than 95 from Caltex or BP

What car did you have, I find compression and volume efficiency comes into play with the fuel used, not to mention how the car is driven or what loads the engine is under.

I drove to work over the same road a lot and used the cruse control and conduct the test from one point to another at the same speeds, windy days aside noted but average economy was noted with all fuels, E10 when it first came out was real crappy in my stock VY SS manual as it lacked power under 2200rpm but then a improved E10 came out from Shell and it was really good.

I remember Shell had a 98 octane in the beginning and then changed that brew later, but when that 98 came out and I would tune my bikes I had to jet them to it or they could be out of tune running that stuff.


The best fuel economy I got out of my SS was the same on all fuels E10 or 91, 95, 98 at best of 8.2L/100 but with air-con on E10 failed, so when the engine was under more stress the E10 did not cut it for economy. 9.2L/100 on 91 octane and 9.6L/100 on E10 I think it was average with car-con on. and this was all with Shell fuel, I did not use any of the Caltex types.

I had a stock New 1999 179kw V8 VS ute and I had to run that on 95 octane in summer or the bugger was gutless if you got up it, the knock sensor would cut in and retard the spark timing that bad that a V6 could hose it off, on 91 you could over take once and that was it, try that again with the next car coming and you lost 40kw for sure.
In the colder months it was ok to drive taking it easy with 91 and back in the day I would only use 95 because the fuel economy worked out the same price wise, it was 4c more a L and my mates dads 1997 V8 LTD he was one for working out the figures and he said such was the same he worked out with his, so he only use 95 as well.

It would be good to have a button to press to show if the engines is retarding the timing come up on screen when the mapping drops out of true mode, the Gen 3 can drop out anywhere from 2 deg to 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 deg and some just go straight back to 12 deg directly, so if the driver was informed of such then one could have a better handle on if it was crappy fuel directly and make a informed change, in stead of being ignorant of the fact what's going on with the engine, not to mention chewing less fuel and less pollution and all.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

What car did you have,.................

EFII Futura I6 with optioned trip computer.


I drove my normal drive, and relied on several tank average, rather than controlled driving. I repeated over and over for a year or more - using only the ODO and the fuel pump figures, I only compared "like" seasons (a/C, holiday driving etc)

[Mechan1k]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

It would be good to have a button to press to show if the engines is retarding the timing come up on screen when the mapping drops out of true mode, the Gen 3 can drop out anywhere from 2 deg to 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 deg and some just go straight back to 12 deg directly, so if the driver was informed of such then one could have a better handle on if it was crappy fuel directly and make a informed change, in stead of being ignorant of the fact what's going on with the engine, not to mention chewing less fuel and less pollution and all.

If you can use an OBDII reader (I know older vehicles didn't run an OBDII port though) you can get that information shown in the Torque App in a nice realtime graph.

[LG17]

Petition is up.


https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary...List?id=EN0744

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I would love to see a chart showing the price of crude in AUD, and average capital city fuel prices ... over the last 5-10 years ... if there is no correlation, then someone is profiteering

really?, you'd have to factor in wage rises for tanker drivers, servo staff etc in the mix before making that claim

[Maka]

Originally Posted by xxx000

really?, you'd have to factor in wage rises for tanker drivers, servo staff etc in the mix before making that claim

Unfortunately wage rises have been stagnant in this country for near a decade, its a well known fact..

EgoFG is imo correct to make that comment & he is not the only one saying it, plus its the international energy cartels etc not so much the local servo's doing the real gouging.

cheers, Maka

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by xxx000

really?, you'd have to factor in wage rises for tanker drivers, servo staff etc in the mix before making that claim

I intentionally used the word correlation, I could have said "let see if we can explain the differences", but I am often a cynic.

[mick taylor]

Originally Posted by Mechan1k

If you can use an OBDII reader (I know older vehicles didn't run an OBDII port though) you can get that information shown in the Torque App in a nice realtime graph.

Yes.

Just to go through scroll tec and press a button on the dash like, would do fine as an option, many other things can be there as some cars can show up like, if one looks for such things.

On another note.
If only people knew that if the engine is retarding from the set timing even by 2 deg, then the engine is creating more pollution, remember the pathetic reaction to the VW etc did not cut the updated EURO laws and they all ran around like chooks with there heads cut off. but the thing was it still met or past the later EURO laws. but we have how many cars running about that are not running totally efficient, running about on 91 octane when they should be truly running on 95 octane. like the FG 4.0L and 3.6L VE-F, only they can get away with running 91 because the computer can retard the timing so it will not ping.
We were all supposes to be running 95 octane but J Gillard stoped that law.
Look at the power figures of the FG 4.0L ford showed the 98 power figures and the 95 and the 91 figures is stated all the time but she makes more power on 95 and more on 98 so that just goes to show the proof that the engine was made for better than 91 octane. I have them power figures some where if anyone wants.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I intentionally used the word correlation, I could have said "let see if we can explain the differences", but I am often a cynic.

Scroll down the article to the video. Gives a good rundown between the surge in just before the gfc and now.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-2...-jump/10306688

[LTDHO]

Originally Posted by LG17

Petition is up.


https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary...List?id=EN0744

There are 20294 signatures on this petition as of 0620 23/10/18

[johntolhurst]

I guess you can debate policy till the cow's come home, but my take is that everything gets GST. But fuel excuse would be a better target especially as more freeloading EV arrive. Within a decade they will clog the streets as per km costs plummet and use goes up. The economics are going to get wierd.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by johntolhurst

I guess you can debate policy till the cow's come home, but my take is that everything gets GST. But fuel excuse would be a better target especially as more freeloading EV arrive. Within a decade they will clog the streets as per km costs plummet and use goes up. The economics are going to get wierd.

Freeloading what?

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by xxx000

really?, you'd have to factor in wage rises for tanker drivers, servo staff etc in the mix before making that claim

I need to get a job as a tanker driver or a servo staff if they are getting 30% payrises,

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Freeloading what?

Petrol excise i think John means, ev's wont have to pay it afaik.

cheers, Maka

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Maka

Petrol excise i think John means, ev's wont have to pay it afaik.

cheers, Maka

But they're paying rego so road usage is covered.

If they're not using fuel then how are they freeloading?
Were LPG users also freeloading because they were paying significantly less excise?

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by johntolhurst

I guess you can debate policy till the cow's come home, but my take is that everything gets GST. But fuel excuse would be a better target especially as more freeloading EV arrive. Within a decade they will clog the streets as per km costs plummet and use goes up. The economics are going to get wierd.

No vehicle will escape tax including the EV's as Governments will introduce a mileage tax for vehicles depending on kilometers traveled per year.

[Mercury Bullet]

Highways are federally funded...by fuel excise... in theory.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Wretched

But they're paying rego so road usage is covered.

If they're not using fuel then how are they freeloading?
Were LPG users also freeloading because they were paying significantly less excise?

By not paying their fair shair i guess according to the federal government. As Officemanager said the ev owner will pay a tax in one form or another to make up the fuel excise shortfall in federal tax.

Ps, i didnt use the term freeloading so if your offended by the term, take it up with John lol.

cheers, Maka

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Maka

By not paying their fair shair i guess according to the federal government. As Officemanager said the ev owner will pay a tax in one form or another to make up the fuel excise shortfall in federal tax.

Ps, i didnt use the term freeloading so if your offended by the term, take it up with John lol.

cheers, Maka

lol not at all sorry didn't mean to direct it at you, i was just responding to your post. All good.

Times are a changing and it is time the government starts adapting to this.

[EgoFG]

Hmmm I got some figures
MarketIndex.com for Crude in USD
RBA.gov.au for USD/AUD exchange rates
FuelWatch (WA) metro fuel prices


Makes for an interesting chart - 2008 saw an AU$ Crude price drop of maybe 50%, but only a 25% drop in ULP, similar thing in late 2014.
The price increases are passed on quickly, and completely, but not so when Crude drops.
I added a line that expresses Crude as a % of ULP - call it %markup - the oil companies would say this is static ... but the figures do not bear that out. This percentage actually increases when prices are high - this is mathematical evidence of gouging.


Also interesting to look at the gap between Crude and ULP on the graph. More markup since 2009 then in the 10 years prior.


I do not have an account to share pictures publicly - but happy to share my spreadsheet by PM

[burnz]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

Hmmm I got some figures
MarketIndex.com for Crude in USD
RBA.gov.au for USD/AUD exchange rates
FuelWatch (WA) metro fuel prices


Makes for an interesting chart - 2008 saw an AU$ Crude price drop of maybe 50%, but only a 25% drop in ULP, similar thing in late 2014.
The price increases are passed on quickly, and completely, but not so when Crude drops.
I added a line that expresses Crude as a % of ULP - call it %markup - the oil companies would say this is static ... but the figures do not bear that out. This percentage actually increases when prices are high - this is mathematical evidence of gouging.


Also interesting to look at the gap between Crude and ULP on the graph. More markup since 2009 then in the 10 years prior.


I do not have an account to share pictures publicly - but happy to share my spreadsheet by PM

you know we don't refine anymore,
if there's a run on diesel then petrol is the byproduct,
the reverse is also true..