Covid 19 -

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by hayseed

What's wrong with Nauru?
SCoMo is spending Millions keeping It open for 1 Tamil Family!!! that(In MY opinion) shouldn't be there..

Main problem is Nauru is not Australian soil. It is too far and too small to handle and support thousands of people a week coming back, with turnover every 2 weeks. Basically a bad idea on all fronts.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Main problem is Nauru is not Australian soil. It is too far and too small to handle and support thousands of people a week coming back, with turnover every 2 weeks. Basically a bad idea on all fronts.

Got to be better than landing them here spreading the virus.
Isn't that what these places are supposed to be for, quarantine.

[tweeked]

You know that it is not our decision? What do you think Nauru would say after what happened in Vic quarantine? You also have to charter flights to go there, it’s not like any of the currently scheduled flights go to Nauru, they are picking up passengers and delivering airfreight (both ways) on return flights. And anyway, why on earth when you know such a high percentage of travellers are positive would you want them so far away from an Australian hospital? As i said, won’t happen, shouldn’t happen.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Main problem is Nauru is not Australian soil. It is too far and too small to handle and support thousands of people a week coming back, with turnover every 2 weeks. Basically a bad idea on all fronts.

I was being facetious....

Sorry. It's actually Christmas Island where the Tamil Family is being Held at a cost $27 Million...


https://www.sbs.com.au/news/christma...in-four-people

It's a pity they aren't so Committed about COVID in Aged care facilities..

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by hayseed

It's a pity they aren't so Committed about COVID in Aged care facilities..

Well, they were.

Committed to making sure everyone caught it at once, like a geriatric version of a “chicken pox party”.

[roddy1960]

I hope Joe Biden's Covid 19 Taskforce hits the ground running in January ..

I think the last three or four days in the USA has seen in excess of 100,000 cases a day . My nearest city in Tassie is Launceston and that's about 100,000 so that puts it into perspective of how many people that gets infected over 24 hours there.. Crazy .

[prydey]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

I hope Joe Biden's Covid 19 Taskforce hits the ground running in January ..

I think the last three or four days in the USA has seen in excess of 100,000 cases a day . My nearest city in Tassie is Launceston and that's about 100,000 so that puts it into perspective of how many people that gets infected over 24 hours there.. Crazy .

Don't get too caught up with the infatuation with America. It's a big country with a lot of people. If you compare it to the number of cases in Europe it puts a bit better perspective on how America is doing. Also just like Australia it's only certain hotspots that have the issues with other states doing quite well.

There isn't as much reporting on number of daily deaths either and there is the thought that the virus is getting weaker as it mutates.

Reports of side effects aren't really taking off either so while there are side effects known, it probably affects only a handful of cases.

The longer it goes on the more data there is to go by. Some of the decision making is like it's still the initial outbreak.

[Citroënbender]

Goodbye, ring of steel.

Every longer journey I made in NSW during this period was tinged with a sense of guilt and sadness that freedom was not equally given across the country. I took very few photos on the road and shared even less, trying to empathetically see travel as incidental - not recreational.

Roll on November 23rd, when we will have four states and two territories fully meshed again.

[Trevor 57]

are you excited, you typed it twice

[russellw]

Originally Posted by prydey

Don't get too caught up with the infatuation with America. It's a big country with a lot of people. If you compare it to the number of cases in Europe it puts a bit better perspective on how America is doing. Also just like Australia it's only certain hotspots that have the issues with other states doing quite well.

There isn't as much reporting on number of daily deaths either and there is the thought that the virus is getting weaker as it mutates.

Reports of side effects aren't really taking off either so while there are side effects known, it probably affects only a handful of cases.

The longer it goes on the more data there is to go by. Some of the decision making is like it's still the initial outbreak.

It may well be a big country but there are some big statements there.

They aren't doing as bad as some EU countries but their 10 day average has been more than 100,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths per day and over the last 14 days they have recorded more than 400 cases per 100k of population. Australia has been 0.6 cases / 100k in the last 14 days and even the worst 14-day period we have had was only 23.8 cases / 100k.

I don't look at the short term mortality data but over the duration America has recorded 73 deaths / 100k population which is on par with some EU countries like the UK (71) and Argentina (73) but well ahead of our 3.55/100k. Indeed, only Belgium (108), Peru (105) and Spain (83) have a higher mortality rate than the USA and I suspect the recent data would show a similar pattern.

It's probably fair to say that the global CMR is falling slightly - it's currently at 2.5% but the case rates (644.5) and mortality rates (16.1) per 100k are both trending upward.

I'm not even sure that we can call the longer term impact as being 'isolated cases' yet given the absence of any in-depth research and the relatively short time frame.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm not even sure that we can call the longer term impact as being 'isolated cases' yet given the absence of any in-depth research and the relatively short time frame.

Which is exactly why it is plain alarmist when it hits a headline when they report that x person has ongoing issues a few months later. There is currently no evidence that it is any worse than similar ongoing effects of the flu, which are real and well documented. In fact pretty much any reasonably serious infections can create a knock on effect. There are well over 30 million recovered people know (most likely well over 100 million). The numbers absolutely suggest there are no significant effects beyond other infections, they are too huge to hide. There would be millions of examples by now, and in the thousands here, no research would be needed to find it.

You cant have it both ways, if we want the media reporting on facts they shouldn't sensationalise either way. The recent case they reported was a perfect example, the headline was about the super fit "marathon runner". This had people on here questioning how Covid would effect her running career, when in the details she was a health care worker who went on a few fun runs. An article to sensationalise? Or designed to install fear from a medical insider to try to make the younger, fitter general public take the condition more seriously? I will take the first, but the second is not out of the realms.

This would be the most studied medical issue ever, with every possible medical resource looking at it, if there is an absence of "in depth research" I would really worry about what the medical fraternity was doing. I have faith that they would already be able to identify the signs if there was something genuine to worry about as far as significant ongoing problems. What we have outside of the regular symptoms is a very small number of young people with an inflammatory response, and everything else seems like it is a regular infection, that is one of the most contagious we have seen, that is far more easily spread in winter climates.

[russellw]

Speaking of the USA, it's been awhile since I looked at the State based data but it contains some surprises.

The ten worst hit States account for more than half (52.5%) of the total cases and 57% of the total deaths.

Texas overtakes California for the top spot ahead of Florida, New York, Illinois (+1), Georgia (-1), N Carolina (+2), Tennessee (+2), Wisconsin (+13) and New Jersey (-2).

Most of those have CMR's around 1.8-2.1% except New York and New Jersey which are both over 6%. Connecticut and Massachusetts are the only other States over 5%.

The worst hit states yesterday were Illinois (12k), Wisconsin (7k), Michigan (7.5k), Texas (6k) and Ohio (5.5k) but overall the worst hit States are North Dakota (7,133 cases per 100k of population); South Dakota (6,135); Wisconsin (4,570), Alabama (4,149); Iowa (4,805); Mississippi (4,238) and Nebraska (4,220).

In terms of deaths per 100k of population the worst affected have been New Jersey (185); New York (172); Massachusetts (145); Connecticut (131); Louisiana (130); Rhode Island (116) and Mississippi (115).

Just for comparison Australia has had 108 cases and 3.5 deaths per 100k of population.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by tweeked

This would be the most studied medical issue ever, with every possible medical resource looking at it, if there is an absence of "in depth research" I would really worry about what the medical fraternity was doing. I have faith that they would already be able to identify the signs if there was something genuine to worry about as far as significant ongoing problems. What we have outside of the regular symptoms is a very small number of young people with an inflammatory response, and everything else seems like it is a regular infection, that is one of the most contagious we have seen, that is far more easily spread in winter climates.

I'm going to take you to task on this point. To date, most of the research effort has been focused on mitigating both the spread and mortality rates for the infection and there have only been (as far as I can ascertain), two studies on residual impacts and both of those over reasonably small sample sizes and (obviously) over a relatively short period of time.

I'm not calling it either way frankly, because it is too early to tell. We know, from other similar virus outbreaks, that there is typically long term lung damage and other shorter term issues but until there is empirical data and longer term (which means years) studies, we'll be left guessing as to what those impacts are and what percentage of people it affects.

[FairmontGS]

Zombie poo detected in NW Sydney

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...d-bf1543b9a479

[T3rminator]

Hopefully the Biden administration will reinstate all the US CDC operations in China that Trump demolished prior to the outbreak. I think they went from 50+ staff to 15 (not include local staff hired to help) and closed down a whole heap of sites which was supposed to act as monitoring and alerting stations. Why the hell would you do that?

Outbreaks are going to increase as population grows, and people and wildlife co-habitat. Bird flu, pig flu etc all partly due to over crowding.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by russellw

It may well be a big country but there are some big statements there.

They aren't doing as bad as some EU countries

I meant all of Europe, not some countries....

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by prydey

I meant all of Europe, not some countries....

Yes, All of Europe - just like all of the United (lol) States.

There is not much difference in the way they handle things, individual US states have their individual Governors, a similar dispersion of power to the sovereign (again - lol) states of the EU.

At the moment, Europe is twice as bad as the US. Regardless of their political bent, France is left, Belgium is right, and they are both monumental disasters. But for some reason their governmental responses in our media gets no negative press.

Because, you know, it's Europe, and they are all so enlightened and so much more evolved than anything as crude as us........

And the US (with Trump's dangerous lies as a figurehead) is absolutely shocking, so use that as perspective.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

We know, from other similar virus outbreaks, that there is typically long term lung damage and other shorter term issues but until there is empirical data and longer term (which means years) studies, we'll be left guessing as to what those impacts are and what percentage of people it affects.

And, I'm going to take you to task on this point. You say it right here - there is no evidence now. About as much evidence as Trump had talking of that Malaria drug - so he got ridiculed - and rightly so.

He shouldn't bring that up as and argument, and no one should take pot shot guesses or instil fear when the is no proof as you say, and no emerging trend. I have no doubt there is some effect, of course there is - every other respiratory ailment does. But throwing it in as an apparent "extra" danger is just guesswork. You can't have it both ways.

The mortality rates are already overstated. We had no where near the detection rates of early infections, but deaths were captured reasonably well. But there is NO appetite by the medical statistician's to correct anything. There seems to be a wish to make it look bad so the dumb public listens. We can really only trust mortality rates from the last 3-4 month forward.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT November 8th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

6 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR drops to 3.280% while active cases drop to 1,305. NSW recorded 3 and SA recorded 3 cases. Victoria reported no new cases for the last 24 hours for the 9th consecutive day.

6 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.261% and active cases rise to 48.

The UK had a lower 20,572 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they recorded 156 deaths.

Just under 127k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,031 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.388% and active cases rise to 34.3% with the raw numbers rising and now over 3.4M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (it's the weekend again)
Global cases set a new record high of 623,365 (6/11);
The USA completes 157M and India 117M tests.

Albania (501) - for the 6th consecutive day;
North Macedonia (1,283);
Azerbaijan (1,663);
Lithuania (1,980); and
Georgia (2,901) - for the 6th consecutive day;

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive days.

Originally Posted by tweeked

there is no evidence now. About as much evidence as Trump had talking of that Malaria drug - so he got ridiculed - and rightly so.

There is evidence, why are you saying there is none?
It's still early days but there are definitely long-term consequences and millions of people are going to be affected.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020100821133

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by leesa

There is evidence, why are you saying there is none?
It's still early days but there are definitely long-term consequences and millions of people are going to be affected.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020100821133

A few cases here and there doesn't prove it's widespread though. Seems to only be in rare cases.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by leesa

There is evidence, why are you saying there is none?
It's still early days but there are definitely long-term consequences and millions of people are going to be affected.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020100821133

Thanks, I just read it, and it just confirms everything I said. You need to read it properly, not just for some confirmation of bias. It is full of “mays” and “mights”. main part is about long term effects of ICU stays - not specifically covid. Nothing in it says anything to do as a direct result of Covid, apart from the inflammation - but other pre existing afflictions. So in that, it is exactly like other respiratory diseases.

All it can come up with is that people over 70 come out of it with cognitive issues. Of course they would, most people over 70 that have a serious disease of any type can struggle, my dad was never the same after being sick at 78, went from bright and alert to gone 2 years later. As i have posted before, studies in the flu shows nearly the same results to the same age bracket.

I am not disputing Covid is serious - it is worse than flu, and that if you have a pre existing ( perhaps unknown) issue you can be in trouble. But there is too much chicken little going on. If it was as bad as what the sky is falling people are saying there would be hundreds upon hundreds of stories of aussies unable to get out of be still, those stories are not there. The media would be all over it. We have at an absolute bare minimum 25000 people who have recovered. Some people just want this to be worse that what any evidence shows.

[Trevor 57]

it can have long lasting health effects, even for the healthy, who survive - they nay-sayers are not discussing this FACT for some reason

Originally Posted by tweeked

Thanks, I just read it, and it just confirms everything I said. You need to read it properly, not just for some confirmation of bias. It is full of “mays” and “mights”. main part is about long term effects of ICU stays - not specifically covid. Nothing in it says anything to do as a direct result of Covid, apart from the inflammation - but other pre existing afflictions. So in that, it is exactly like other respiratory diseases.

That's not what it says at all. I'm not sure how you came to dismiss everything it's saying and decide it's not linked to covid.

Autopsy data from COVID patients in Finland suggests that another major cause of brain damage is lack of oxygen. Particularly worrisome is that several of the patients who were autopsied did not show any signs of brain injury during the course of their COVID infection — yet all had brain damage. In one patient there was loss of taste, and in two there was “minimal respiratory distress,” but none of these patients were thought to have any brain damage while alive.

There is one inevitable conclusion from these studies: COVID infection frequently leads to brain damage — particularly in those over 70. While sometimes the brain damage is obvious and leads to major cognitive impairment, more frequently the damage is mild, leading to difficulties with sustained attention.

Originally Posted by tweeked

If it was as bad as what the sky is falling people are saying there would be hundreds upon hundreds of stories of aussies unable to get out of be still, those stories are not there. The media would be all over it. We have at an absolute bare minimum 25000 people who have recovered. Some people just want this to be worse that what any evidence shows.

There are plenty of articles on covid long haulers. Pretty easy to claim they don't exist if you don't go looking for them though.

[Jack91]

Had the worst cold of my life the last 3 days. Bad fever, next level aches and coughing. Was not well at all. Got tested at the first sign of it on Friday, was SURE i was going to be that one dick who ruined the streak but alas someone else will get to wear that badge.
As usual, no sympathy from the mrs "man flu blah blah blah", not gonna lie kinda wanted it to be covid to prove a point for once.
Anyhow thats my pointless fortnightly post boys, I'm off.

[Citroënbender]

Better luck next time.

I hear you on the lack of female sympathy; “Never mind you’re feeling sick, you haven’t asked how my day was!”

[Trevor 57]

the trick is is to never cry wolf, I get the sympathy I deserve when I deserve it

[russellw]

I'd been wondering why the numbers for our region (Oceania) had been climbing steadily when ours were going down and the answer to that question seems to be French Polynesia - a cluster of 118 islands (67 inhabited) with Tahiti having 70% of the ~280k population.

They had a few isolated cases back in March and then absolutely nothing until early August where the numbers started to climb. They don't report every day so the numbers are patchy but there were 509 cases in August; 1,279 in September; 5,410 in October and 2,733 thus far in October.

In total, they have recorded 9,995 cases, mostly since August, with an infection rate of 3,558 per 100k of population; a death rate of 13.88/100k and a CMR of 0.4%.

It's a good example of what can happen on island groups which have the advantage of being able to readily isolate but also the disadvantage of rapid spread once infection gets into the community.

There are other examples.

Guadeloupe, another group of 12 islands in the Caribbean with a population ~400k had about 100 cases back in March and then nothing until late July and has had almost 8k cases since. The infection rate is 1,975 per 100k of population; death rate 33.2/100k and the CMR is 1.68%.

[PhilT2]

The Pfizer vaccine, BNT162b2, has shown to be 90% effective in widespread trials and approval for use is expected to be granted this month. The fact that these results are being released just after the US election is sure to be controversial.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-...ctive/12865626

[FairmontGS]

Looks like we are all saved.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-...ctive/12865626