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#10351 | ||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,759
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#10352 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Quote:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...27-p57mqw.html "Genomic sequencing last week revealed their infection was the same as the infections of two family members who were staying in accommodation next door before being moved to Special Health Accommodation after testing positive. Although the three returned travellers flew into Sydney on the same plane from Kuala Lumpur, they all tested negative to the virus on day two of their stay, prompting an investigation into whether the virus had been transmitted within the hotel." |
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#10353 | |||
Bolt Nerd
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ojochal, Costa Rica (Pura Vida!)
Posts: 14,622
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Quote:
__________________
Current vehicles.. Yamaha Rhino UTV, SWB 4L TJ Jeep, and boring Lhd RAV4 Bionic BF F6... UPDATE: Replaced by Shiro White 370z 7A Roadster. SOLD Workhack: FG Silhouette XR50 Turbo ute (11.63@127.44mph) SOLD 2 wheels.. 2015 103ci HD Wideglide.. SOLD SOLD THE LOT, Voted with our feet and relocated to COSTA RICA for some Pura Vida! (Ex Blood Orange #023 FPV Pursuit owner ![]() |
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#10354 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,868
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Social distancing or whatever people may call to choose it, is breaking down.
I was one of three in a large lift today - probably reduced capacity of 4 persons, couldn’t see the signage - then it was crammed by another six people. We didn’t quite need the Japanese train conductors in white gloves to do the pushing, but it felt squeezy. So - next time the zombies escape in Sydney - it could get busy really fast… |
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#10355 | ||
I am Groot
![]() Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Burnett Heads, Qld
Posts: 6,840
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Social distancing lol
Go to the airport and very second seat says you can't sit there, must keep an empty seat between each person, everyone has to ware a face mask at all times except eating, every store has a sign saying how many allowed in a any one time, PA systems repeating over and over about social distancing and wearing your mask etc etc..... Then they cram you in shoulder to shoulder in a plane.
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.. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() "Those were the days when the cars were cars, they weren't built out of an Ikea pack like they are now and clothed in plastic; they were real cars." John Bowe |
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#10356 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,021
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Hard to say just yet. The 10-day average is 2,369 but 6 of the last 10 have been above that, however, the previous 10-day average was 2,560 so at least it has improved slightly.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10357 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#10358 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Well its just been announced that Howard Springs will increase its capacity from 800 to 2000. Worth noting Howard Springs is currently under the care of the feds, who have contracted the management out to specialists NCCTRC and AUSMAT. These guys have been called the "ninjas" of prevention and containment. This is how it SHOULD be done IMHO, but these guys don't come cheap.
The plan is to handover to the NT gov at some stage. But already they are anticipating problems with attracting enough skilled staff to do the job. Meanwhile, I recall MITCHAY saying ACT quarantine will now be done by NSW. ![]() Diplomat drives to Canberra to isolate at home before testing positive to COVID-19 https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...e19e255e495e74 |
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#10359 | |||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,759
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It's just a tragedy...
![]() India COVID surge sees oxygen, medicine sold on black market Quote:
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#10360 | ||
🚫⏰4️⃣🐃💩
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,901
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I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?
I don't seem to remember Scotty pulling the plug from people arriving from the above mentioned countries when they were in a worse situation? So why only ban flights from India? And why now, just a couple of days after the public outrage over Scotty letting an Australian citizen of Indian origin travel to India to get married?? Hmmmm... |
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#10361 | |||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,759
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And more
![]() India surpasses 200,000 COVID deaths as health system buckles under virus surge Quote:
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#10362 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canberra
Posts: 13,374
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Quote:
To clarify we are not taking anymore repatriation flights since we have only a few hundred residents left so will reimburse other states the costs at port of entry. There are currently no commercial international flights here at the moment so unless they want to bus or fly passangers down here we have no use for the program. |
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#10363 | ||||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 18,985
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Quote:
Quote:
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#10364 | ||||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Quote:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...arly/100098780 Quote:
The sad thing is, I can't see how they are going to turn this around. Unlike the US or UK, environmental factors makes India far far worse. What is happening in India now is what the world feared would happen in Africa at the beginning. Question, what is Modi doing about it? He declared victory over covid 3 months ago. Election coming up in a few days. |
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#10365 | ||
BANNED
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,886
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I stand to be corrected but I can't remember any country having the same daily infection rate as India has atm?
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#10366 | |||
N/A all the way
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,459
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Quote:
more positives than any daily total from any country. Scarier, 25% positive rate on those tested. Their real numbers must be over a million a day. You may have to give Scotty an attaboy this time.
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BA GT 5.88 litres of Modular Boss Powered Muscle 300++ RWKW N/A on 98 octane on any dyno, happy or sad, on any day, with any operator you choose - 12.39@115.5 full weight |
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#10367 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canberra
Posts: 13,374
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Quote:
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#10368 | |||
🚫⏰4️⃣🐃💩
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
India has since recorded the highest number per day. A few thousand more than the USA record. But the question still has to be asked. Why shut off India only, when the USA was in a similar position in January of this year? |
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#10369 | ||
If it ain't broke........
![]() Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Sunshine Coast Qld
Posts: 18,543
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https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...25e367ea445efa
Some media are saying the 55 year old was fit and healthy, others are saying he had a pre existing condition..........
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#10370 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,021
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Quote:
The USA peaked at 297k and had a 10 day period where the average was over 240k/day before rapidly dropping. The UK peaked at 68k and had a 10 day period where the average was 57k/day before gradually dropping. India has had a peak (thus far) of 362k cases yesterday and a 10 day average of 320k/day. In fairness, the cases / 100k of population peaks were much worse for some other countries than India: India is peaking at about 26/100k; Brazil peaked at 58/100k; the USA at 90/100k and the UK at almost 100/100k.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10371 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,021
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Quote:
I think what it comes down to is the confidence level around India getting some control over the spread which there is no sign of thus far. Despite some not unreasonable doubts during the Trump era, there was always some confidence that the USA would get a better grip on it eventually - and their case numbers now support that confidence. I've long been concerned that the numbers coming out of India were a bit light in terms of deaths as their CMR has been sitting around 1.1% - well below the global average of 2.1% with similarly developed countries averaging 2.2% but then we also know that in this current wave both case and mortality numbers are being understated.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10372 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Some positive news just coming in. BOJO has done very well despite screwing up the CV19 response in the beginning. Any chance we can learn from it?
Seven in 10 British adults have COVID antibodies as herd immunity nears https://www.theage.com.au/world/euro...29-p57nbe.html "The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 68 per cent of adults now have some level of protection against the virus, either from vaccination or a prior infection. The level has risen by one third in a month while infections have waned, meaning much of the upswing can be credited to Britain’s vaccine rollout." |
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#10373 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,891
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Interesting, is tickford a writer for the Guardian?
![]() Comparing US and UK Covid case numbers suggests Australia’s India flight ban based on ‘fear factor’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-fear-factor |
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#10374 | ||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,759
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Yes, plenty of reasons to suspect that India is much worse than UK, USA, etc.
COVID-19: India crematoriums 'underreporting bodies' as suspicion grows over true number of coronavirus deaths https://news.sky.com/story/india-cre...eaths-12288828 Are Indian statistics understating covid-19 cases and deaths? https://www.economist.com/the-econom...ses-and-deaths India’s Uncounted COVID-19 Deaths https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...ovid-19-deaths India grieves 200,000 dead with many more probably uncounted https://www.9news.com.au/world/india...3-c7099a2d91ca |
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#10375 | ||
Virtuous Bogan (TM)
![]() Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: TAS
Posts: 27,560
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The under reporting may not be intentional, they are literally out of control, poor sods its hard to imagine and take in.
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#10376 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,021
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 28th, 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 32 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.059%. 1 new case and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.996% and active cases 27. The UK had a lower 2,166 cases yesterday and 29 deaths. Just over 52k new cases in the USA yesterday and 994 deaths sees CMR at 1.784%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases pass 150M, the last 1M in 1 day; Global deaths pass 3.15M, the last 50k in 4 days; Asia sets a new daily case high of 508,025; India sets a new global high with 379,459 cases; India passes 18M cases and 200k deaths; Asia passes 38M cases. Trinidad & Tobago (223); Cabo Verde (409); Maldives (464); Cambodia (698); Sri Lanka (1,466) - 32% above yesterdays high; Costa Rica (2,434); and India (379,459) ... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. Latvia moves above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and Bosnia drops below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 29-04-2021 at 06:00 PM. |
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#10377 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,021
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I think the under-reporting of deaths has been systemic from the start based on them only recording those who had a confirmed diagnoses prior to their death. It's worse than the UK model that only counts those who didn't have 'probably fatal' co-morbidities and even their CMR is 2.8%.
Indeed, countries that have done a lot of testing (Australia, Italy the USA) are all well above the Indian CMR (two of those above 3%) and we know that high testing volumes tend to reduce CMR so with only 20% of the population tested you would expect the Indian CMR to be much higher. Even Russia, which we already know has been under-reporting deaths by a lot has a CMR more than twice that of India and if we add the 100k deaths that allegedly haven't been reported then it's more than 3x worse. The global average of a little over 2% should be read as very much an absolute rough guide only and any countries significantly below that treated with at least some disbelief. I've been studying this data for a long time now and here is my 10 cents worth of opinion - IF you have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, AND can manage the spread effectively AND you keep it out of the aged care system AND you have high levels of testing; then you can maintain a CMR of around 0.8-1.3% which is about where NZ, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Luxembourg and Norway are sitting. IF you have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, BUT don't manage the spread effectively OR you don't keep it out of the aged care system AND you have high levels of testing; then you can maintain a CMR of around 2.0-3.0% which is about where Australia, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Italy and Belgium are sitting. IF you DON'T have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, AND don't manage the spread effectively OR you don't keep it out of the aged care system AND you have reasonable levels of testing; then the real CMR is likely to be ~4% which is about where Russia (really), Bosnia and Bulgaria are sitting. I suspect India is in that category too. Drilling down on India. There is a huge disparity across the various States in India in terms of case numbers per 100k of population with some reporting as low as 200/100k through to 2,100/100k at the upper end with the average being 1,300/100k. Most other countries with decent test volumes are in the 3-6k/100k bracket with plenty well over 10k/100k. With only 20% of the population tested, it is likely the real number of infections is orders of magnitude higher. Even if we work on the higher 2,100/100k figure and extrapolate that across the entire country we go from 18M cases to 28M cases but if we use a median point of 3k/100k than that total rises to 41M cases. That tends to suggest (at a somewhat conservative 3%) the real death toll is somewhere between 850k and 1.2M, not the currently reported 200k but it will probably be 2 years before we get even a vaguely clearer picture and even that will still be under-reported.
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#10378 | |||
Where to next??
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 8,893
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Quote:
If my maths is correct that tells me that there are a little under 10 million deaths per year. Or, around 189,000 deaths per week.
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___________________________ I've been around the world a couple of times or maybe more....... |
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#10379 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 4,926
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Quote:
Not surprised to see Maldives enter this list. In fact I went looking to see after reading that big numbers of India's rich are choosing there to escape to. |
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#10380 | |||
BANNED
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,886
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Quote:
Oh? I thought India's rich were fleeing using their dual nationality documents to "come home" to ......Australia. ![]()
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